Queen Essays

The Texas Demographic Center is responsible for interpreting and communicating information on demographic and socioeconomic issues for the State of Texas and the general public and through robust and quality projections, inform planning and policy-making related to the demand and provision of services across the State.

In this Brief:

 The latest population projections include more recent migration trends, a new race/ethnicity category, and expand the age distribution to 95 years plus.

 The newly added non- Hispanic Asian group is projected to grow at the fastest rate, growing five-fold by 2050.

 The Hispanic population will likely surpass the non- Hispanic white population by 2022 but is not projected to make up the majority of the state population during the projections horizon.

 Much of the population growth in Texas is projected to come from the large urban counties of Harris, Bexar, Dallas, and Tarrant and neighboring suburban counties. The fastest growth is projected to occur in these suburban counties as well as in the Permian Basin area.

Texas Population Projections 2010 to 2050

The Texas Demographic Center produces population projections for 40 years beyond the most recent Census to help planners and policymakers anticipate future demand for services and pressures on infrastructure. In our most recent set of projections, one migration scenario is employed in which the migration patterns observed in Texas between 2010 and 2015 are assumed throughout the projections horizon. Additionally, this updated set of projections includes a new race/ethnicity category, non-Hispanic Asian, and expands the age distribution to 95 years and older. This document provides a brief overview of the statewide population projections for 2010 to 2050 using the migration trends observed in Texas between 2010-2015. This scenario represents our recommended scenario as it most closely reflects the most recent migration trends. Projections using the previous migration scenarios can be accessed by contacting our office. Our full methodology can be found on our website. Migration rates between 2010 and 2015 were somewhat lower than migration rates observed in Texas between 2000 and 2010. This updated scenario yields a state population approaching 47.4 million by 2050, which represents an 88.3 percent increase over that period. Projected Geographic Distribution of the Population Our population projections suggest the majority of Texas counties will experience continued steady population growth between 2010 and 2050. This is especially the case for suburban

JANUARY 2019

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counties surrounding the large urban centers of Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio, and Austin. All of these suburban counties are projected to experience a growth rate greater than that of the State as a whole, with 27 of these counties projected to double their populations by 2050. Additionally, a number of counties in the Permian Basin and surrounding the Midland-Odessa area will also see continued growth. Although many of the large urban counties are also projected to experience high growth rates, only Harris, Bexar, and Travis Counties are expected to grow faster than the State. These projections also indicate slower growth in areas of the Rio Grande Valley and El Paso County. Lastly, our projections suggest continued population decline in 99 counties, located mostly in West Texas, parts of

East Texas, and parts of South Texas. Projections by Age, Sex, and Race/Ethnicity Age The current population projections expand the age distribution to include the population aged 95 years and older. This age group is captured in Tables 1 and 2 below in the 85 plus age category. When compared to the other age categories, the age category including Texans over 85 years of age is projected to grow at the fastest rate. The eldest seniors, those 85 years of age and older, are projected to nearly quadruple in size between 2010 and 2050, approaching 1.5 million. The age category including those 65 to 84 years of age is projected to

2010-2015 Migration Trends

Domestic migration made up a larger share of total net migration between 2010 and 2015, while international migration made up a larger share of total net migration between 2000 and 2010. This is one of the most important key differences in how the migration trends employed in the latest population projections differ from the migration trends observed between 2000 and 2010.

On average, net migration contributed approximately 178,000 migrants annually to the Texas population between 2000 and 2010. By contrast, between 2010 and 2015, net migration contributed an average of 198,000 migrants annually to the state population. In essence, an additional 20,000 net migrants were added annually to the Texas population during this most recent migration period than during the last decade.

Net migration to the state is comprised of domestic migration (or migrants moving to Texas from other states) and international migration (or immigrants moving to Texas from another country). Between 2000 and 2010, international migration made up over half, or 52 percent, of the total net migration to the state, and domestic migration contributed about 48 percent of the total net migration. In contrast, between 2010 and 2015, domestic migration made up over 60 percent of the total net migration to the state, compared to less than 38 percent added from international migration.

These differences in the migration patterns employed in our most recent population projections have significant implications for the projected findings. For instance, certain parts of the state are most impacted by population changes associated with domestic migration, whereas other parts of the state are more impacted by changes in international migration. The latest projections indicate faster and more growth in areas characterized by high domestic migration and slower growth in some border counties and other areas of the state with high shares of international migration. Additionally, domestic migration is more often characterized by migration of non-Hispanic whites, whereas international migration to Texas is more often characterized by migration of Hispanics. Therefore, the most recent projections employing the 2010 to 2015 migration patterns produce an increased rate of growth for the non-Hispanic white population and a slower rate of growth for Hispanics. Indeed, if the patterns of strong domestic migration (mostly comprised of migration by non-Hispanic whites) and a smaller share of international migration continues into the future, our projections indicate this pattern could mitigate and even compensate for the aging effect of the Baby Boom generation on the Texas population.

These projections, like all projections, are beholden to their underlying assumptions, which may or may not occur. One such key assumption is the migration scenario. Migration trends to Texas between 2010 and 2015 represent a high migration period, particularly domestic migration of non- Hispanic Whites. More recent data, yet to be incorporated into the Population Estimates and Projections Program, indicate slower and more diversified migration rates to Texas. As we continue to diligently observe emerging demographic trends in Texas and incorporate new data, we will update our projections.

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Projected Percent Population Change in Texas Counties, 2010 to 2050 2010-2015 Migration Scenario

be the second fastest growing age group, nearly doubling in size by 2050 to a population of over 6.8 million. The younger age categories are projected to continue a slower but steady growth, with children, ages 0 to 4 and 5 to 17, projected to be the slowest growing age groups.

Sex The 2010 Census showed nearly equal proportions of males and females in the State, with slightly more females than males. Both groups are projected to approach 24 million by 2050. The sex ratio is projected to remain about the same

throughout the projections horizon and ends with slightly more females than males. Race/Ethnicity This most recent set of projections includes the addition of the non-Hispanic Asian race/ethnicity category. In previous projections, the non-Hispanic Asian group was part of the non-Hispanic Other racial/ethnic category. Projections indicate this new race/ethnicity group, non-Hispanic Asians, will grow at the fastest rate, when compared to other racial/ ethnic categories. The non-Hispanic Asian population is projected to near 6 million by 2050, with a

Less than 0% (99)

0% to < 25% (76)

25% to < 50% (20)

50% to < 75% (18)

75% to < 100% (14)

100% and greater (27)

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Population Characteristics

Census 2000 Census 2010 Population Projections, 2010-2015 Migration Scenario

2020 2030 2040 2050

Total Population 20,851,820 25,145,561 29,677,772 34,894,429 40,686,490 47,342,417

Male 10,352,910 12,472,280 14,740,086 17,341,937 20,244,264 23,615,366

Female 10,498,910 12,673,281 14,937,686 17,552,492 20,442,226 23,727,051

NH White 10,933,313 11,397,345 12,138,523 12,774,056 13,203,514 13,523,839

NH Black 2,364,255 2,886,825 3,557,892 4,322,983 5,141,963 6,030,795

NH Asian 554,445 948,426 1,525,629 2,414,732 3,772,125 5,782,908

NH Other 330,141 452,044 651,069 929,709 1,308,068 1,813,125

Hispanic 6,669,666 9,460,921 11,804,659 14,452,949 17,260,820 20,191,750

0-4 Years 1,624,628 1,928,473 2,115,100 2,414,592 2,675,167 3,017,091

5-17 Years 4,262,131 4,937,351 5,400,039 6,037,060 6,895,497 7,730,367

18-44 Years 8,683,202 9,644,824 11,285,372 13,114,679 14,924,002 17,094,930

45-64 Years 4,209,327 6,033,027 6,965,222 7,751,644 9,282,886 11,193,348

65-84 Years 1,834,592 2,296,707 3,492,491 4,962,354 5,865,610 6,811,337

85 Years Plus 237,940 305,179 419,548 614,100 1,043,328 1,495,344

population growth rate of more than 5 times the 2010 population. The non-Hispanic Asian population is projected to make up over 12 percent of the total State population in 2050. The non-Hispanic Other race/ethnicity category, consisting mostly of population of two or more races, continues to grow rapidly and is projected to grow to nearly 2 million by 2050, tripling in size during this time period. The Hispanic population is growing at a rapid rate as well as increasing its proportion of the total State population. Our projections suggest the Hispanic population will more than double its size in 2010 to over 20 million by 2050. The non-Hispanic black population is also projected to double in size, growing to over 6 million by 2050. The non-Hispanic white population is projected to grow at a steady but slower pace relative to the other race/ ethnicity categories, growing to a total population of 13.5 million by 2050. Our population projections

suggest the Hispanic population will likely surpass the non-Hispanic White population in size by 2022. However, the Hispanic population is not projected to make up a majority of the Texas population throughout this projection’s 2050 horizon.

Table 1. Texas Population 2000, 2010 and Projected Population, 2020-2050 by Select Characteristics

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structure. Most strikingly, the projected population pyramid for Texas in 2050 loses much of its pyramidal shape and begins to look more like a rectangle, with a slightly tapered base — indicating

decreasing fertility rates, and a broader “peak” — representing the growing proportion of those in the older age categories. While the older age categories, ages 60 plus, are projected to include more females than males, the age categories including those under 60 years are projected to include more males. Population Growth and Decline in Texas Counties Numerically, much of the population growth is projected to come from the large urban counties of Harris, Bexar, Dallas, and Tarrant, with each of these

Projected Age Structure of the Population Population pyramids for Texas in 2010 and 2050 reveal key changes in the sex and age

Population Characteristics

Projected Percent Change from 2010, 2010-2015 Migration Scenario

Projected Numeric Change from 2010, 2010-2015 Migration Scenario

2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050

Total Population 4,532,211 9,748,868 15,540,929 22,196,856 18.02 38.77 61.80 88.27

Male 2,267,806 4,869,657 7,771,984 11,143,086 18.18 39.04 62.31 89.34

Female 2,264,405 4,879,211 7,768,945 11,053,770 17.87 38.50 61.30 87.22

NH White 741,178 1,376,711 1,806,169 2,126,494 6.50 12.08 15.85 18.66

NH Black 671,067 1,436,158 2,255,138 3,143,970 23.25 49.75 78.12 108.91

NH Asian 577,203 1,466,306 2,823,699 4,834,482 60.86 154.60 297.72 509.74

NH Other 199,025 477,665 856,024 1,361,081 44.03 105.67 189.37 301.09

Hispanic 2,343,738 4,992,028 7,799,899 10,730,829 24.77 52.76 82.44 113.42

0-4 Years 186,627 486,119 746,694 1,088,618 9.68 25.21 38.72 56.45

5-17 Years 462,688 1,099,709 1,958,146 2,793,016 9.37 22.27 39.66 56.57

18-44 Years 1,640,548 3,469,855 5,279,178 7,450,106 17.01 35.98 54.74 77.24

45-64 Years 932,195 1,718,617 3,249,859 5,160,321 15.45 28.49 53.87 85.53

65-84 Years 1,195,784 2,665,647 3,568,903 4,514,630 52.07 116.06 155.39 196.57

85 Years Plus 114,369 308,921 738,149 1,190,165 37.48 101.23 241.87 389.99

Table 2. Texas Projected Numeric and Percent Change, 2010 to 2050 by Select Characteristics

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counties projected to add over one million people by 2050. Other counties projected to add over one million in population during this time period, include Fort Bend, Collin, Denton, Williamson, and Montgomery. Together, these counties are projected to add over 15.5 million between 2010 and 2050. The top 10 counties projected to have the fastest growth rates are a combination of suburban counties, such as Hays, Kendall, Williamson, Fort Bend, and Comal, and counties in the Permian Basin area, including Andrews, Crane, Midland, and Ector. Karnes County, located southeast of San Antonio, is projected to grow at the fastest rate of all the Texas counties. All of these suburban counties are projected to more than double their

County Ranking 2010 2050 Percent

Change

Karnes 1 14,824 126,431 752.88

Andrews 2 14,786 100,627 580.56

Hays 3 157,107 743,171 373.03

Crane 4 4,375 18,418 320.98

Midland 5 136,872 573,085 318.70

Kendall 6 33,410 138,957 315.91

Williamson 7 422,679 1,638,796 287.72

Fort Bend 8 585,375 2,254,963 285.22

Ector 9 137,130 494,413 260.54

Comal 10 108,472 389,328 258.92

Floyd 245 6,446 4,220 -34.53

Comanche 246 13,974 8,960 -35.88

Lamb 247 13,977 8,867 -36.56

Sabine 248 10,834 6,816 -37.09

Jeff Davis 249 2,342 1,454 -37.92

Hale 250 36,273 22,050 -39.21

Clay 251 10,752 6,309 -41.32

Castro 252 8,062 4,605 -42.88

Parmer 253 10,269 5,757 -43.93

Presidio 254 7,818 2,654 -66.05

populations between 2010 and 2050, adding a total population of over 4.8 million or 22 percent of the total State population change projected between 2010 and 2050. Although Texas is generally characterized by rapid and high growth, 99 of the 254 counties are projected to have declines in population. Hale County, located in the Texas Panhandle, is projected to have the greatest population decline between 2010 and 2050, projected to lose over 14,000 residents during this time period. Among counties with the greatest population losses are counties mostly in rural and more sparsely populated areas of the state, particularly in parts of West, East, and South Texas. Two counties with populations over 100,000 are among the top counties with the

Table 4. Top 10 Texas Counties with Greatest and Least Percent Change between 2010 and 2050 2010-

2015 Migration Scenario

County Ranking 2010 2050 Numeric

Change

Harris 1 4,092,459 7,900,994 3,808,535

Fort Bend 2 585,375 2,254,963 1,669,588

Collin 3 782,341 2,444,316 1,661,975

Denton 4 662,614 2,323,056 1,660,442

Bexar 5 1,714,773 3,343,929 1,629,156

Dallas 6 2,368,139 3,858,686 1,490,547

Tarrant 7 1,809,034 3,184,835 1,375,801

Williamson 8 422,679 1,638,796 1,216,117

Montgomery 9 455,746 1,483,476 1,027,730

Travis 10 1,024,266 1,974,018 949,752

Rusk 245 53,330 47,883 -5,447

Lamar 246 49,793 44,041 -5,752

Navarro 247 47,735 41,970 -5,765

Anderson 248 58,458 52,597 -5,861

Potter 249 121,073 114,659 -6,414

Nacogdoches 250 64,524 57,618 -6,906

Val Verde 251 48,879 41,553 -7,326

Bowie 252 92,565 84,047 -8,518

Wichita 253 131,500 121,337 -10,163

Hale 254 36,273 22,050 -14,223

Table 3. Top 10 Texas Counties with Greatest and Least Numeric Change between 2010 and 2050 2010-

2015 Migration Scenario

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Austin Office

P.O. Box 13455

Austin, TX 78711

Ph: 512-463-8390

Fax: 512-463-7632

San Antonio Office

The University of Texas at San Antonio

501 West Cesar E. Chavez Blvd.

San Antonio, TX 78207-4415

Ph: 210-458-6543

Fax: 210-458-6541

@TexasDemography http://demographics.texas.gov [email protected]

greatest population losses between 2010 and 2050. These counties are Potter and Wichita Counties. The top 10 counties with the lowest percent change are projected to lose between 35 and 66 percent of their populations between 2010 and 2050. The county projected to have the greatest population decline, in terms of percentage, by 2050 is Presidio County, located south of El Paso along the Texas-Mexico border. These projections, like all projections, involve the use of certain assumptions about future events that may or may not occur. Users of these projections should be aware that although the projections have been prepared with the use of detailed methodologies and with extensive attempts being made to account for existing demographic patterns, they may not accurately project the future population of the State or of particular counties in the State. Additionally, given that these projections are for 2010 to 2050 but incorporate a new migration scenario and updated birth, death, and special populations data, they may not be similar to those released by the program in 2014. The complete population projections methodology, data for download, interactive maps, and our online projections tool are available on our website:

http://demographics.texas.gov/Data/TPEPP/ Projections/Index.aspx.

Conclusion

The most recent population projections from the Texas Demographic Center employing the migration trends observed between 2010 and 2015 indicate Texas may reach a population of nearly 47.4 million. Much of the growth in the State is projected to take place in the large urban core counties of the State along with the surrounding suburban ring counties. These suburban counties, as well as counties located in the Permian Basin, are projected to grow at the fastest rates during this time. These projections also indicate the State will continue to age, with the fastest growing age groups being those of ages 65 years and older. The Hispanic population is projected to continue to drive population growth, and the newly added non- Hispanic Asian group is projected to grow at rates faster than those of other race/ethnicity groups. Amid population growth, parts of Texas are projected to continue to decline, especially sparsely populated, rural counties in parts of West, East, and South Texas.

About this Report

The Texas Demographic Center produced this report as part of the Population Estimates and Projections Program. The report’s authors include: Helen You, Lloyd Potter, Lila Valencia, and Sara Robinson.

Demographic Trends and Population Projections for Texas and the North Texas Region

Presented to 

January 15, 2021

Texas is experiencing significant and substantial growth.

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U.S. Estimated Population 2020:   329,484,123

Texas Estimated Population 2020: 29,360,759

Texas makes up 8.9% of the total U.S. population but 32.4% of the total growth between 2019 and 2020.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2020 Vintage population estimates Note: These data are not from the 2020 Census, rather estimates based on the 2010 Census

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Population Growth of Select States, 2000-2019

2000 Population

2010 Population

2019  Population

Numeric Change

2010‐2019

Percent Change

2010‐2019

United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 32,823,9523 19,481,418 6.3%

Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 28,995,881 3,849,790 15.3%

California 33,871,648 37,253,956 39,512,223 2,257,704 6.1%

Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 21,477,737 2,673,173 14.2%

Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 10,617,423 928,694 9.6%

North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 10,488,084 952,333 10.0%

Washington 5,894,121 6,724,540 7,614,893 890,353 13.2%

Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 7,278,717 886,429 13.9%

Colorado 5,029,196 5,029,196 5,758,736 729,417 14.5%

Texas adds more population than any other state and at a fast rate.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census; 2019 Vintage population estimates

Top 15 Metros in Numeric Growth, 2010‐2019

Rank Name April 1, 2010 July 1, 2018 July 1, 2019 Numeric Change

Percent  Change

1 Dallas‐Fort Worth‐Arlington, TX 6,366,537 7,455,756 7,573,136 1,206,599 19.0 2 Houston‐The Woodlands‐Sugar Land, TX 5,920,487 4,849,209 7,066,141 1,145,654 19.4 3 Phoenix‐Mesa‐Chandler, AZ 4,193,129 4,849,209 4,948,203 755,074 18.0 4 Atlanta‐Sandy Springs‐Alpharetta, GA  5,286,718 6,976,147 6,020,364 733,646 13.9 5 Washington‐Arlington‐Alexandria, DC‐VA‐MD‐WV  5,649,688 5,945,303 6,280,487 630,799 11.2 6 Miami‐Fort Lauderdale‐Pompano Beach, FL  5,566,274 6,143,837 6,166,488 600,214 10.8 7 Seattle‐Tacoma‐Bellevue, WA  3,439,808 3,935,179 3,979,845 540,037 15.7 8 Austin‐Round Rock‐Georgetown, TX  1,716,323 2,165,497 2,227,083 510,760 29.8 9 Orlando‐Kissimmee‐Sanford, FL  2,134,399 2,574,838 2,608,147 473,748 22.2 10 Riverside‐San Bernardino‐Ontario, CA  4,224,948 4,612,542 4,650,631 425,683 10.1 11 Denver‐Aurora‐Lakewood, CO  2,543,608 2,931,665 2,967,239 423,631 16.7 12 Tampa‐St. Petersburg‐Clearwater, FL 2,783,485 3,154,649 3,194,831 411,346 14.8 13 San Antonio‐New Braunfels, TX  2,142,520 2,512,379 2,550,960 408,440 19.1 14 San Francisco‐Oakland‐Berkeley, CA  4,335,593 4,726,314 4,731,803 396,210 9.1 15 Charlotte‐Concord‐Gastonia, NC‐SC  2,243,963 2,592,950 2,636,883 392,920 17.5

5Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 Vintage Population Estimates

DFW leads nation in metro growth for the 4th year in a row.

Five of the 15 largest U.S. cities are in Texas. Rank Place Census 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

1 New York, NY 8,175,133 8,272,948 8,346,693 8,396,091 8,433,806 8,463,049 8,469,153 8,437,478 8,390,081 8,336,817

2 Los Angeles, CA 3,792,621 3,820,876 3,851,202 3,881,622 3,909,901 3,938,568 3,963,226 3,975,788 3,977,596 3,979,576

3 Chicago, IL 2,695,598 2,708,114 2,719,141 2,725,731 2,727,066 2,724,344 2,716,723 2,711,069 2,701,423 2,693,976

4 Houston, TX 2,099,451 2,126,032 2,161,593 2,199,391 2,241,826 2,286,908 2,309,544 2,316,750 2,318,573 2,320,268

5 Phoenix, AZ 1,445,632 1,469,796 1,499,274 1,526,491 1,555,445 1,583,690 1,612,199 1,633,560 1,654,675 1,680,992

6 Philadelphia, PA 1,526,006 1,540,466 1,551,824 1,558,313 1,565,460 1,571,065 1,576,051 1,580,601 1,583,592 1,584,064

7 San Antonio, TX 1,327,407 1,357,120 1,383,075 1,408,339 1,435,456 1,464,043 1,487,843 1,511,154 1,530,016 1,547,253

8 San Diego, CA 1,307,402 1,319,592 1,336,776 1,355,320 1,375,831 1,387,323 1,402,089 1,412,621 1,421,917 1,423,851

9 Dallas, TX 1,197,816 1,218,282 1,242,115 1,258,835 1,279,098 1,301,329 1,323,916 1,342,479 1,341,802 1,343,573

10 San Jose, CA 945,942 970,369 983,530 1,001,279 1,014,273 1,025,980 1,030,242 1,032,335 1,028,020 1,021,795

11 Austin, TX 790,390 828,459 854,482 875,003 901,170 921,114 939,447 951,553 962,469 978,908

12 Jacksonville, FL 821,784 829,609 837,013 842,735 852,494 865,836 880,520 892,025 902,437 911,507

13 Fort Worth, TX 741,206 764,142 781,046 796,073 815,057 835,356 856,177 874,809 893,216 909,585

14 Columbus, OH 787,033 800,607 812,740 827,797 841,673 854,950 866,894 881,694 890,869 898,553

15 Charlotte, NC 731,424 754,829 773,264 792,047 807,400 825,668 843,117 860,002 872,514 885,708 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 Vintage Population Estimates

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Rank Geographic Area Population Estimate Change, 2018 to 2019

July 1, 2018 July 1, 2019 Number Percent

1 Phoenix, AZ 1,654,675 1,680,992 26,317 1.6

2 San Antonio, TX 1,530,016 1,547,253 17,237 1.1

3 Austin, TX 962,469 978,908 16,439 1.7

4 Fort Worth, TX 893,216 909,585 16,369 1.8

5 Charlotte, NC 872,514 885,708 13,194 1.5

6 Frisco, TX 188,452 200,490 12,038 6.4

7 Seattle, WA 742,235 753,675 11,440 1.5

8 Denver, CO 716,265 727,211 10,946 1.5

9 Henderson, NV 309,518 320,189 10,671 3.4

10 Mesa, AZ 507,945 518,012 10,067 2.0

11 Jacksonville, FL 902,437 911,507 9,070 1.0

12 Chico, CA 94,342 103,301 8,959 9.5

13 Atlanta, GA 498,183 506,811 8,628 1.7

14 Las Vegas, NV 643,228 651,319 8,091 1.3

15 Meridian, ID 106,464 114,161 7,697 7.2 7Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 Vintage Population Estimates; Note: among places with populations of 50,000 or more in 2018 

Texas cities among top 15 US cities with largest numeric increase between 2018 and 2019.

Rank Geographic Area Population Estimate Change, 2018 to 2019

July 1, 2018 July 1, 2019 Number Percent 1 Leander, TX 55,924 62,608 6,684 12.0 2 Apex, NC 53,859 59,300 5,441 10.1 3 Chico, CA 94,342 103,301 8,959 9.5 4 Doral, FL 60,762 65,741 4,979 8.2 5 Bentonville, AR 51,103 54,909 3,806 7.4 6 Meridian, ID 106,464 114,161 7,697 7.2 7 Georgetown, TX 74,275 79,604 5,329 7.2 8 Buckeye, AZ 74,339 79,620 5,281 7.1 9 New Braunfels, TX 84,495 90,209 5,714 6.8 10 Redmond, WA 67,436 71,929 4,493 6.7 11 Frisco, TX 188,452 200,490 12,038 6.4 12 Fort Myers, FL 82,229 87,103 4,874 5.9 13 Lehi, UT 65,958 69,724 3,766 5.7 14 Castle Rock, CO 65,000 68,484 3,484 5.4 15 Milpitas, CA 80,208 84,196 3,988 5.0

8Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 Vintage Population Estimates; Note: among places with populations of 50,000 or more in 2018 

Nearly a third of the 15 fastest-growing large cities and towns in the country are in Texas.

Population and population growth in Texas are not evenly geographically distributed.

10,000 or less 10,001 – 50,000 50,001 – 100,000 100,001 – 500,000 500,001 – 1,000,000 1,000,001 – 6,000,000 plus

Cartogram of Texas County Populations in 2010

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Pecos

Brewster

Webb

Hudspeth

Presidio Terrell

Reeves

Val Verde

Crockett

Duval

Harris

Hill

Frio

Bell

Kenedy

Kerr

Starr

Polk

Clay

Jeff Davis

Irion

Uvalde

Sutton

Hall

Ellis

Dallam

Gaines

Bexar

Hidalgo

Leon

Hale

Bee

Hartley

Upton

Kinney

Erath

Brazoria

King

Oldham

Zavala

Dimmit

Jack Kent

Gray

Cass

Kimble

Lynn Wise

Lamb Floyd

Andrews

Terry

Coke

Llano Milam

Travis

Ector

Knox

Falls

Collin

Nueces

Ward

Bowie

Kleberg

Foard

Culberson

Edwards

La Salle

Tyler

Medina

Hunt

Rusk

Liberty

Smith

Mills

Lee

Matagorda

Jones

Burnet

Nolan

Potter

Zapata

Cottle

Taylor

Coryell Reagan Houston

Motley

Brown

Young

Maverick

Lamar

Real

Martin

Coleman

Garza

Dallas

Jasper

Fisher

Tom Green

Moore

Cameron

Baylor

Deaf Smith

Archer

Scurry

Mason

Cooke

Navarro

Parker

Castro

Brooks

Atascosa

Hardin

DeWitt

Lavaca

Bailey

Donley

Bosque El Paso

Denton

Goliad

Wharton

Fannin

Runnels

Concho

Tarrant

Hays Fayette

Carson

Schleicher

Crosby

Crane

Borden

Calhoun

Gillespie

Haskell

Newton

Live Oak

Jefferson

McMullen

Jim Hogg

Randall

Sterling

Briscoe

Shelby

Mitchell

Parmer

Victoria

Wilson

Roberts

Menard

San Saba

Howard

Wood

Panola

Grayson

Trinity

Bastrop

Walker

Midland

Gonzales

Hockley

Anderson

Dickens

Swisher

Winkler

Dawson

Cherokee

Wheeler

Willacy

Grimes

Harrison

Colorado

Red River

Eastland

Lubbock

Williamson

Hemphill

Refugio

Karnes Jackson

McCulloch

Ochiltree

Wilbarger

Austin

Sherman

McLennan

Hansford

Blanco

Callahan Loving

Yoakum

Angelina

Lipscomb

Stephens

Hopkins

Palo Pinto

Stonewall

Montague

Hamilton

Bandera

Jim Wells

Cochran

Limestone

Fort Bend

Kaufman

Armstrong

Freestone Comanche

Montgomery

Glasscock

Kendall

Henderson

Galveston

Comal

Johnson Van Zandt

Wichita

Chambers

Titus

Robertson

Brazos

Hutchinson

Sabine

Upshur

Waller

Shackelford Hood

Childress

Burleson

Nacogdoches

Collingsworth

Lampasas

Throckmorton

Hardeman

Guadalupe Caldwell

Aransas

Marion

San Patricio

Madison

San Jacinto

Delta

Orange

Rains

Gregg

San Augustine

Morris

Franklin

Somervell

Rockwall

169 – 10,000

10,001 – 100,000

100,001 – 500,000

5000,001 – 2,000,000

2,000,001 – 4,713,325

Approximately 86% of the total Texas population is located in counties along and to the east of I-35.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 Population Estimates

Total Estimated Population by  County, 2019

11

Of Texas’ 254 counties, 104 lost population between 2010 and 2019.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 Population Estimates 

-3,663 – 0

1 – 5,000

5,001 – 25,000

25,001 – 100,000

100,001 – 620,149

Pecos

Brewster

Webb

Hudspeth

Presidio Terrell

Reeves

Val Verde

Crockett

Duval

Harris

Hill

Frio

Bell

Kenedy

Kerr

Starr

Polk

Clay

Jeff Davis

Irion

Uvalde

Sutton

Hall

Ellis

Dallam

Gaines

Bexar

Hidalgo

Leon

Hale

Bee

Hartley

Upton

Kinney

Erath

Brazoria

King

Oldham

Zavala

Dimmit

Jack Kent

Gray

Cass

Kimble

Lynn Wise

Lamb Floyd

Andrews

Terry

Coke

Llano Milam

Travis

Ector

Knox

Falls

Collin

Nueces

Ward

Bowie

Kleberg

Foard

Culberson

Edwards

La Salle

Tyler

Medina

Hunt

Rusk

Liberty

Smith

Mills

Lee

Matagorda

Jones

Burnet

Nolan

Potter

Zapata

Cottle

Taylor

Coryell Reagan Houston

Motley

Brown

Young

Maverick

Lamar

Real

Martin

Coleman

Garza

Dallas

Jasper

Fisher

Tom Green

Moore

Cameron

Baylor

Deaf Smith

Archer

Scurry

Mason

Cooke

Navarro

Parker

Castro

Brooks

Atascosa

Hardin

DeWitt

Lavaca

Bailey

Donley

Bosque El Paso

Denton

Goliad

Wharton

Fannin

Runnels

Concho

Tarrant

Hays Fayette

Carson

Schleicher

Crosby

Crane

Borden

Calhoun

Gillespie

Haskell

Newton

Live Oak

Jefferson

McMullen

Jim Hogg

Randall

Sterling

Briscoe

Shelby

Mitchell

Parmer

Victoria

Wilson

Roberts

Menard

San Saba

Howard

Wood

Panola

Grayson

Trinity

Bastrop

Walker

Midland

Gonzales

Hockley

Anderson

Dickens

Swisher

Winkler

Dawson

Cherokee

Wheeler

Willacy

Grimes

Harrison

Colorado

Red River

Eastland

Lubbock

Williamson

Hemphill

Refugio

Karnes Jackson

McCulloch

Ochiltree

Wilbarger

Austin

Sherman

McLennan

Hansford

Blanco

Callahan Loving

Yoakum

Angelina

Lipscomb

Stephens

Hopkins

Palo Pinto

Stonewall

Montague

Hamilton

Bandera

Jim Wells

Cochran

Limestone

Fort Bend

Kaufman

Armstrong

Freestone Comanche

Montgomery

Glasscock

Kendall

Henderson

Galveston

Comal

Johnson Van Zandt

Wichita

Chambers

Titus

Robertson

Brazos

Hutchinson

Sabine

Upshur

Waller

Shackelford Hood

Childress

Burleson

Nacogdoches

Collingsworth

Lampasas

Throckmorton

Hardeman

Guadalupe Caldwell

Aransas

Marion

San Patricio

Madison

San Jacinto

Delta

Orange

Rains

Gregg

San Augustine

Morris

Franklin

Somervell

Rockwall

Estimated Numeric Change by County,  2010‐2019

Pecos

Brewster

Webb

Hudspeth

Presidio

Culberson

Terrell

Reeves

Val Verde

Crockett

Duval

Harris

Hill

Frio

Bell

Kenedy

Kerr Edwards

Starr

Polk

Clay

Jeff Davis

Irion

Uvalde

Sutton

Hall

Ellis

Dallam

Gaines

Bexar

Hidalgo

Leon

Hale

Bee

Hartley

Upton

Kinney

Erath

Brazoria

King

Oldham

Zavala

Dimmit

Jack Kent

La Salle

Tyler

Gray

Cass

Medina

Kimble

Lynn Wise Hunt

Rusk

Lamb Floyd

Andrews

Liberty

Terry

Coke

Llano Milam

Travis

Ector

Smith

Knox

Mills

Lee

Falls

Collin

Nueces

Jones

Ward

Burnet

Nolan

Potter

Cottle

Taylor

Coryell

Bowie

Motley

Young

Lamar

Real

Martin

Garza

Dallas Fisher

Moore

Kleberg

Cameron

Baylor

Deaf Smith

Archer

Scurry

Mason

Cooke

Navarro

Parker

Castro

Hardin

Donley

El Paso

Denton

Goliad

Fannin

Schleicher

Gillespie

Shelby

Menard

Foard

Wood

Panola

Harrison

Eastland

Bandera

Matagorda

Zapata

Reagan Houston

Brown

Maverick

Coleman

Jasper

Tom Green

Brooks

Atascosa DeWitt

Lavaca

Bailey

Bosque

Wharton

Runnels

Concho

Tarrant

Hays Fayette

Carson

Crosby

Crane

Borden

Calhoun

Haskell

Newton

Live Oak

Jefferson

McMullen

Jim Hogg

Randall

Sterling

Briscoe

Mitchell

Parmer

Victoria

Wilson

Roberts

San Saba

Howard

Grayson

Trinity

Bastrop

Walker

Midland

Gonzales

Hockley

Anderson

Dickens

Swisher

Winkler

Dawson

Cherokee

Wheeler

Willacy

Grimes

Colorado

Red River

Lubbock

Williamson

Hemphill

Refugio

Karnes Jackson

McCulloch

Ochiltree

Wilbarger

Austin

Sherman

McLennan

Hansford

Blanco

Callahan

Loving

Yoakum

Angelina

Lipscomb

Stephens

Hopkins

Palo Pinto

Stonewall

Montague

Hamilton

Jim Wells

Cochran

Limestone

Fort Bend

Kaufman

Armstrong

Freestone Comanche

Montgomery

Glasscock

Kendall

Henderson

Galveston

Comal

Johnson

Van Zandt

Wichita

Chambers

Titus

Robertson

Brazos

Hutchinson

Sabine

Upshur

Waller

Shackelford Hood

Childress

Burleson

Nacogdoches

Collingsworth

Lampasas

Throckmorton

Hardeman

Guadalupe

Caldwell

Aransas

Marion

San Patricio

Madison

San Jacinto

Washington

Delta

Orange

Rains

Gregg

San Augustine

Morris

Franklin

Camp

Somervell

Rockwall

12

The suburban ring counties are among the fastest growing, even faster than the Texas population as a whole.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 Population Estimates 

-33% – -5%

-4% – 0%

1% – 15%

16% – 31%

32% – 106%

Estimated Percent Change by County,  2010‐2019

What is driving population growth in Texas?

14

About 1,006 people per day added to our population. 

• About 483 persons per day from natural increase  (more births than deaths)

• About 523 per day from net migration (178  international and 345 domestic migrants per  day).

Natural  Increase 48%Domestic 

Migration 34%

International  Migration

18%

Texas added 367,215 people between July 1, 2018 and July 1, 2019.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 Population Estimates.

15

213,651 208,964 205,795 213,541 214,380 212,021 209,690 190,951 175,878

70,535 76,954 82,449 95,661 110,155 111,983 110,417

104,976

65,044

117,615 145,513

110,614

163,160 174,200

125,800 79,163

82,569

125,660

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Components of Population Change, 2011‐2019

Natural Increase International Migration Domestic Net Migration

Migration and natural increase contribute about equally to population growth in Texas.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 Vintage population estimates

16

Top Counties for Numeric Growth in Texas, 2018-2019

County U.S.  Rank

2019 Population  Estimate

Population Change  2018‐2019

Percent of Change  from Natural  Increase

Percent of Change  from Domestic  Migration

Percent of Change  from International 

Migration

Harris 3 4,713,325  33,280  116.5% ‐91.5% 74.8% Collin 4 1,034,730  30,423  20.8% 65.6% 13.5% Denton 5 887,207  28,466  19.8% 74.0% 5.8% Travis 6 1,273954  27,382  32.7% 51.0% 15.7%

Williamson 9 590,551  24,088  15.3% 81.0% 3.3% Fort Bend 10 811,688  23,607  24.4% 57.1% 18.5% Bexar 11 2,003,554  22,367  56.0% 33.5% 10.5% Tarrant 12 2,102,515  21,069  65.1% 12.1% 23.0%

Montgomery 16 607,391  17,621  18.3% 76.2% 5.3% Comal 46 156,209  8,068  4.3% 94.2% 1.1%

Kaufman 49 136,154  7,875  9.4% 90.5% ‐0.1% Bell 53 362,924  7,527  48.3% 49.8% 1.5% Hays  54 230,191  7,485  19.9% 76.8% 2.8%

Hidalgo 74 868,707 6,409 147.6% ‐47.4% ‐0.3% Dallas 77 2,635,516 6,166 345.9% ‐395.5% 149.9%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 Population Estimates

Note: Harris, Dallas, and Hidalgo Counties had negative net migration.

17

Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2018-2019

County100 U.S. Rank 2019 Population  Estimate

Population  Change 

2018‐2019

Percent  Population Change 

2018‐2019

Percent of  Population Change from 

Natural  Increase

Percent of  Population  Change from  Domestic  Migration

Percent of  Population  Change from  International  Migration

Kaufman 2 136,154 7,875 6.1% 9.4% 90.5% ‐0.1% Comal 4 156,209 8,068 5.4% 4.3% 94.2% 1.1% Rockwall 6 104,915 4,369 4.3% 9.8% 88.6% 1.5% Williamson 9 590,551 24,088 4.3% 15.3% 81.0% 3.3% Kendall 14 47,431 1,828 4.0% 0.6% 97.9% 1.5% Andrews 18 18,705 694 3.9% 14.0% 84.0% 2.0% Chambers 20 43,837 1,610 3.8% 17.8% 80.1% 2.2% Parker 25 142,878 4,808 3.5% 8.2% 90.9% 0.7% Hays 28 230,191 7,485 3.4% 19.9% 76.8% 2.8%

Denton 32 887,207 28,466 3.3% 19.8% 74.0% 5.8% Ellis 34 184,826 5,820 3.3% 16.0% 83.2% 0.7%

Waller 36 55,246 1,734 3.2% 20.0% 78.4% 1.4% Gaines 37 21,492 672 3.2% 46.0% 43.9% 10.0% Collin 49 1,034,730 30,423 3.0% 20.8% 65.6% 13.5%

*Among counties with populations of 10,000 or more in 2018.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 Population Estimates

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, State to State Migration Flows, 2019; for infographic: https://demographics.texas.gov/Infographics/2020/TexasNetMigration

Texas among the highest in-migration flows states, CA biggest net sending state.

18

Estimated County-to-County Migration Flows, Dallas and Tarrant Counties, 2014-2018

19

In‐Flows Net Migration

Tarrant County 15,284 ‐3,865

Collin County 13,742 ‐3,522

Denton County 9,826 ‐8,981

Asia 8,287

Central America 7,263

Harris County 4,589 ‐108

Los Angeles County, CA 2,782 1,245

Africa 2,774

Bexar County 2,495 988

Kaufman County 2,263 ‐3,033

Travis County 1,934 ‐1,071

Ellis County 1,903 ‐850

Rockwall County 1,893 ‐795

Cook County, IL 1,794 1,187

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey County to County Migration Flows, 2014‐2018

Dallas County Tarrant County In‐Flows Net Migration

Dallas County 19,149 3,865

Asia 5,751

Denton County 5,265 ‐2,167

Johnson County 3,887 346

Central America 3,653

Harris County 3,577 963

Africa 2,693

Parker County 2,652 ‐953

Collin County 1,906 ‐707

Bexar County 1,659 222

Los Angeles County, CA 1,515 859

Travis County 1,352 ‐701

Lubbock County 1,333 ‐719

Wise County 1,270 ‐656

As Texas grows, it ages and continues to diversify.

Race/Ethnicity Composition, Texas, 2010-2019

NH White 41%

NH  Black 12%

Hispanic  40%

NH Asian 5%

NH Other 2%

2019

NH White,  45%

NH  Black,  12%

NH Asian,  4%

NH Other,  2%

Hispanic,  38%

2010

Race/Ethnicity 2019 

Population  Estimate

NH White 11,950,774

Hispanic 11,525,578

NH Black 3,501,610

NH Asian 1,457,549

NH Two or More Races 425,866

NH American Indian & Alaska Native 94,168

NH Native Hawaiian & Other Pacific Islander 25,861

Population Change by Race/Ethnicity, 2010-2019

2,064,657 601,726 522,136 497,006 164,795

53.6%

15.6% 13.6% 12.9%

4.3%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Hispanic NH Black NH White NH Asian NH Other

Share of Contribution to Total Population Change, 2010‐2019 Numeric Change, 2010‐2019

Nearly 87% of growth has been from non‐White  population groups.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2019 Population Estimates

23

Race/Ethnicity Composition, DFW Metro and Its Counties, 2019

NH White 45%

NH Black 16%

NH Other 3%

NH Asian 7%

Hispanic 29%

DFW Metro Area

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019 1‐Year Estimates

NH White NH Black NH Asian Hispanic NH Other

Dallas  28.3% 22.7% 6.5% 40.8% 1.7%

Collin  55.1% 10.4% 16.1% 15.5% 2.8%

Denton  57.6% 10.5% 9.5% 19.6% 2.7%

Ellis  58.9% 11.6% 0.7% 26.9% 1.9%

Hood  83.5% 1.0% 0.8% 12.8% 1.9%

Hunt  70.4% 7.8% 1.4% 17.6% 2.7%

Johnson  70.1% 3.8% 0.9% 22.6% 2.6%

Kaufman  59.8% 13.3% 1.4% 23.3% 2.3%

Parker  82.6% 1.5% 0.6% 13.0% 2.3%

Rockwall  69.0% 7.1% 3.1% 18.6% 2.3%

Somervell  77.8% 1.0% 0.7% 18.1% 2.4%

Tarrant  45.3% 17.0% 5.6% 29.5% 2.6%

Wise 76.0% 1.3% 0.6% 20.0% 2.1% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 Population Estimates

24

Total NH White NH Black NH Asian Hispanic NH Other Tarrant County 293,481 13,761 94,029 34,131 136,733 14,827 Dallas County 267,377 ‐41,646 76,935 53,005 168,255 10,828 Collin County 252,389 75,245 42,600 78,797 45,282 10,465 Denton County 224,593 83,363 38,773 40,766 53,069 8,622 Ellis County 35,216 10,640 8,178 551 14,544 1,303 Kaufman County 32,804 9,003 7,550 948 14,115 1,188 Rockwall County 26,578 14,188 2,987 1,349 7,072 982 Parker County 25,951 18,276 269 248 6,197 961 Johnson County 24,883 7,441 2,807 608 12,444 1,583 Hunt County 12,465 4,997 713 468 5,632 655 Wise County 10,857 6,036 353 167 3,853 448 Hood County 10,461 6,843 395 200 2,664 359 Somervell County 638 478 39 25 27 69

Numeric Change by Race/Ethnicity, DFW Counties, 2010-2019

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 Population Estimates

Hispanics adding largest numbers in two largest DFW counties as well as in Ellis, Kaufman, Johnson, and  Hunt Counties; NH Whites adding greatest numbers in Denton, Rockwall, Parker, Wise, Hood, and  Somervell, but declining in Dallas County; Asians adding largest numbers in Collin County.

25

Total NH White NH Black NH Asian Hispanic NH Other Rockwall County 33.9% 24.4% 67.5% 71.9% 56.7% 70.1% Denton County 33.9% 19.5% 71.3% 93.2% 43.9% 55.0% Collin County 32.3% 15.2% 65.4% 89.2% 39.3% 55.6% Kaufman County 31.7% 12.4% 71.3% 106.0% 80.4% 63.0% Ellis County 23.5% 10.8% 61.9% 66.6% 41.4% 58.0% Parker County 22.2% 18.3% 14.6% 39.1% 49.9% 42.5% Hood County 20.4% 15.3% 172.5% 66.4% 50.9% 45.4% Wise County 18.4% 12.8% 61.6% 71.4% 38.1% 43.2% Johnson County 16.5% 6.4% 73.3% 63.1% 45.6% 51.5% Tarrant County 16.2% 1.5% 35.7% 40.6% 28.3% 38.1% Hunt County 14.5% 7.8% 10.2% 51.3% 47.9% 32.6% Dallas County 11.3% ‐5.3% 14.8% 44.4% 18.6% 30.9% Somervell County 7.5% 7.2% 70.9% 61.0% 1.7% 46.6% Between 2010 and 2019, Rockwall, Denton, Collin, and Kaufman grew faster than other DFW  Counties; Asians grew faster than other race groups in most DFW Counties, except for Johnson and  Somervell Counties, where African Americans grew fastest, and Parker County, where Hispanics  grew the fastest.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 Population Estimates

Percent Chane by Race/Ethnicity Composition, DFW Counties, 2010-2019

26

Percent Hispanic, DFW Census Tracts, 2019

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Decennial Census, 2019 American Community Survey 5‐Year Estimates

27

Percent Non-Hispanic Black, DFW Census Tracts, 2019

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Decennial Census, 2019 American Community Survey 5‐Year Estimates

28

Percent Non-Hispanic Asian, DFW Census Tracts, 2019

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Decennial Census, 2019 American Community Survey 5‐Year Estimates

29

Texas is relatively young but aging.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Decennial Census, 2019 American Community Survey 1‐Year Estimates

35.3

38.5

32.3

35.1

29.0 30.0 31.0 32.0 33.0 34.0 35.0 36.0 37.0 38.0 39.0

Change in Median Age, U.S. and Texas, 2000‐2019

U.S. TX

30

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

< 05 05‐09 10‐14 15‐19 20‐24 25‐29 30‐34 35‐39 40‐44 45‐49 50‐54 55‐59 60‐64 65‐69 70‐74 75‐79 80‐84 85‐89 90‐94 95+

NH White Hispanic

In Texas in 2019, there are more Hispanics than NH Whites below age 45; more NH Whites at 45 and older.

Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2019 Population Estimates

31

2018 1.87

2016 2.02

2014 2.09

2012 2.08

2010 2.16

2008 2.36

2006 2.36

Total 1.92

NH White 1.71

NH Black 1.83

Hispanic 2.14

Total Fertility Rates Total Fertility Rate by Race/Ethnicity,  2017

Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics, National Vital Statistics Reports

Total Fertility Rates, Texas

32Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics, National Vital Statistics Report; denominator  derived from U.S Census Bureau, Intercensal Estimates, 2010‐2019 Population Estimates

Birth Rates by Race/Ethnicity, Texas, 2006-2018

33

‐200,000

‐100,000

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

Under 18 18 to 24 25 to 44 45 to 64 65 Plus

NH White NH Black Hispanic NH Asian NH Other

Numeric Change in Age Group by Race/Ethnicity, Texas, 2010-2019

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 Population Estimates

Period of Entry by Area of Birth for Foreign Born Population in Texas

34Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 American Community Survey, 1‐Year PUMS

4.5

3.0

4.2

30.5

21.6

19.1

11.0

6.2

2.8

52.6

68.1

72.5

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0

Entered after 2010

Entered 2000 to 2009

Entered before 2000

Percent

Ax is  Ti tle

Europe Asia Africa Oceania Latin America Northern America

35

Total Foreign Born Population 4,951,156

Latin America 3,271,403*

Mexico 2,453,126*

Central America Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador,1 Guatemala,3 Honduras,2 Nicaragua, Panama 510,150

South America Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia,2 Ecuador, Guyana, Peru, Uruguay,  Venezuela1 191,933

Caribbean Bahamas, Barbados, Cuba,1 Dominica, Dominican Republic3, Grenada, Haiti,  Jamaica2, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Trinidad and Tobago, West Indies 116,194

Asia 1,126,507

South Central Asia Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India,1 Iran, Kazakhstan, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Uzbekistan  449,906

South Eastern Asia Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Burma, Philippines,2 Singapore,  Thailand, Vietnam1 360,043

Eastern Asia China,1 Hong Kong, Taiwan,3 Japan, Korea2 227,580

Western Asia Iraq,1 Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia2, Syria, Yemen, Turkey,3 Armenia 82,776

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 American Community Survey 1‐Year Estimates

Place of Birth for the Foreign Born Population, Texas, 2019

36

Questions?

What’s ahead for the population of Texas?

Projected Population, Texas, 2010-2030

38Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2014 and 2018 Population Projections

25.1

34.9

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

M ill io ns

Zero Migration

0.5 Migration

1.0 Migration

2010‐2015 Migration

29.7

39Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2018 Vintage Population Projections, 2010‐2015 Migration Scenario 

Population Projections by Race/Ethnicity, Texas, 2010-2030

11.4 12.8

2.9

4.3

9.5

14.5

0.9

2.4

0.5 0.9 0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

M ill io ns

NH White NH Black Hispanic NH Asian NH Other

40

Population Projections, DFW Metro Counties, 2010-2030

Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2018 Population Projections 

3,106,298

2,507,170

1,391,461

1,234,110

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Dallas

Tarrant

Collin

Denton

41

194,098 209,581

157,333

104,802

134,114

71,909

66,206

10,253

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Johnson

Ellis

Parker

Kaufman

Hunt

Rockwall

Wise

Hood

Somervell

Population Projections, DFW Metro Counties, 2010-2030

42

Population Projections by Race/Ethnicity, DFW Metro Area, 2010- 2030

Source: Texas Demographic Center 2018 Population Projections 

3,197,326

3,667,178

941,320

1,584,914 1,751,878

2,802,965

337,785

926,493

138,233 282,008

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

NH White NH Black Hispanic NH Asian NH Other

43

45

Texas’s Most Vulnerable Populations • Income disparities place African Americans

and Latinos at greater risk during times of income loss.

• Renters, renters w/low incomes, Blacks, and households w/children face greater risk of eviction.

• Persistently low health insurance coverage in the state increases vulnerability of Texans with employer based insurance.

Source: Texas Demographic Center, https://demographics.texas.gov/Resources/publications/2020/20200918_ACS2019Brief_TexasMostVulnerablePopulations.pdf

46

Questions?

Lila Valencia, Ph.D. (512) 936‐3542

[email protected]

demographics.texas.gov

@TexasDemography

@TexasDemographics

47

Implications of population growth and demographic shifts on Texas socio-economic indicators

Population 25 and Older with High School Diploma and Above, Texas, 2011-2019

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 1‐Year Estimates

81.1 84.6

92.5 94.4

86.2 91.2

85.7 89.4

60.4

68.3

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Pe rc en t

Total NH White Black Asian Hispanic

50

Population 25 and Older with Bachelors Degree and Above, Texas, 2011-2019

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 1‐Year Estimates

26.4 30.8

34.8 39.4

20.3 25.7

52.5

60.6

12.0 16.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Pe rc en t

Total NH White Black Asian Hispanic

51

84.6

94.4 91.2 89.4

68.3

30.8

39.4

25.7

60.6

16.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Total NH White Black Asian Hispanic Total NH White Black Asian Hispanic

Pe rc en t

Austin DFW Houston San Antonio Texas

Educational Attainment by Race/Ethnicity, Big Four Metros & Texas, 2019

High School Degree and above

Bachelor’s Degree and above

Educational attainment is slightly higher in the DFW  metro than in Texas overall, except for Hispanics.  However, educational disparities by race/ethnicity are  still evident, especially for Hispanics. 

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 2019 1‐Year Estimates

52

$74,974

$91,706

$70,079

$78,905

$43,482 $52,010

$41,786 $47,428

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

$100,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

M ed

ia n  Ho

us eh

ol d  In co m e  (A dj us te d  Do

lla rs )

Asian NH White Hispanic Black

Median Household Income by Race/Ethnicity, Texas, 2010-2019

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 1‐Year Estimates

53

$64,034 

$78,905 

$52,010  $47,428 

$91,706 

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

Total NH White Hispanic Black Asian

M ed

ia n  Ho

us eh

ol d  In co m e

Austin Dallas Houston San Antonio Texas

Median Household Income by Race/Ethnicity, Big Four Metros & Texas, 2019

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 2019 1‐Year Estimates

Median incomes are higher in the DFW metro than in  Texas overall. However, disparities by race/ethnicity  are still evident, especially for Hispanics and Blacks. 

54

Median Earnings for Full‐Time,  Year‐Round Work DFW Metro Area Texas

Total $50,677 $46,434

Male $53,428 $51,125

Female $45,455 $40,670

Pay Gap $0.85 $0.80

Median Earnings, DFW Metro and Texas, 2019

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 2019 1‐Year Estimates

Poverty and Uninsured Rates by Race/Ethnicity, Texas, 2019

Texas US

Population Below Poverty Estimate Percent Estimate Percent

Black or African American 634,381 18.6 8,557,464 21.2

Asian  131,705 9.2 1,761,321 9.6

Hispanic or Latino 2,113,153 18.7 10,201,081 17.2

NH White 933,323 8.0 17,352,095 9.0

Texas US

Uninsured Population Estimate Percent Estimate Percent

Black or African American 517,133 15.0 4,124,039 10.1

Asian  161,969 11.3 1,218,462 6.6

Hispanic or Latino  3,258,356 28.6 11,135,068 18.7

NH White  1,240,220 10.6 12,130,924 6.3

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 American Community Survey, 1‐Year Estimates

56

18.4%

10.6%

28.6%

15.0%

11.3% 13.6%

8.0%

18.7% 18.6%

9.2%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

Total NH White Hispanic Black Asian Total NH White Hispanic Black Asian

Austin Dallas Houston San Antonio Texas

Percent Uninsured, Below Poverty by Race/Ethnicity, Big Four Metros & Texas, 2019

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 2019 1‐Year Estimates

Percent Uninsured

Percent Poverty Rate

Uninsurance and poverty rates are lower in the DFW  metro than in Texas overall, except for Hispanics  where their uninsurance rate is higher. However,  disparities by race/ethnicity are still evident, especially  for Hispanics and Blacks. 

57 Source: Brookings, https://www.brookings.edu/interactives/metro‐recovery‐index/